Milestone map
Milestone map
3 milestones
Construct a formal economic argument on a contested policy question
4 weeks
Select a real contested economic policy question — minimum wage effects on employment, immigration's impact on local wages, carbon pricing versus cap-and-trade, industrial policy versus free trade — and construct a formal economic argument. The argument must: state a specific position, ground it in economic theory (specify the model or mechanism), cite real empirical evidence (not just 'studies show'), anticipate the most important counter-argument, and explain why your position holds despite it.
Proof required
Economic argument document (700+ words) covering: a specific position, the theoretical mechanism, at least two empirical studies cited with their specific findings, the strongest counter-argument, and your response explaining why the position holds.
What gets checked
- Position is specific enough to be falsified by evidence — not 'it's complex and depends on context'
- Theoretical mechanism is named specifically — not 'supply and demand'
- Two empirical studies are cited with their specific findings, not just title and year
Common mistakes
- Selecting a question where there is empirical consensus and calling it 'contested' — the challenge is defending a position where reasonable economists genuinely disagree
- Treating theory and evidence as substitutes — a pure theory argument without empirical evidence, or empirical evidence without theoretical grounding, is incomplete
- Choosing a weak counter-argument — the counter-argument must be the strongest available case against the position
Resources
Foundationstart here
What a verifier looks for
- Verify the cited studies are real — request the citations and check they say what the argument claims
- Review the theoretical mechanism — confirm it is named and explained specifically, not gestured at
- Check the counter-argument — confirm it is the strongest available case against the position
Engage with real empirical debate and address dissenting evidence
3 weeks
Extend the M1 argument by engaging directly with empirical dissent: identify the most important published evidence against your position, explain why it does not overturn your argument (it addresses a different time period, a different labour market context, uses a flawed identification strategy), or concede a boundary condition (your argument holds under condition X but not condition Y). The argument must become stronger by engaging with the dissent, not just dismissing it.
Proof required
Extended argument document (400+ words) identifying at least two empirical papers that support the counter-position with their specific findings, and providing a specific response to each — either methodological critique, scope limitation, or conditional concession.
What gets checked
- Two dissenting papers are identified with their specific findings — not vaguely described
- Each response is specific to the paper's methodology, scope, or findings — not a generic dismissal
- At least one conditional concession is made where the dissenting evidence is genuinely compelling
Common mistakes
- Summarising dissenting evidence without engaging with its specific claims — 'some studies find different results' is not an argument response
- Methodological dismissal of every dissenting paper — genuine empirical debates have papers with strong methodology on both sides
- Not making any concessions — unconditional positions in contested empirical economics debates signal unfamiliarity with the literature
Resources
What a verifier looks for
- Check dissenting papers are real and the findings described match the papers — verify at least one citation
- Review responses to dissenting evidence — confirm at least one is a conditional concession rather than a dismissal
- Confirm at least one response engages with the specific methodology of the dissenting paper
Defend argument under adversarial challenge from an economist
1 week
Present the full argument to an economist or economics academic for a structured adversarial debate. The reviewer must introduce novel evidence or scenarios mid-discussion — 'there's a 2023 paper by X that directly contradicts your key citation — how do you respond?', 'what if this policy were applied in a country with much lower labour mobility — does your mechanism still hold?'. Document the challenges and your real-time responses. This Q&A satisfies the ADVERSARIAL VERIFICATION RULE.
Proof required
Q&A notes (250+ words) documenting the reviewer's economics background, at least three specific challenges to the argument (including at least one novel evidence or scenario challenge), your responses, and any position updates or concessions made.
What gets checked
- Reviewer is an economist or economics academic with familiarity with the policy area
- At least one challenge introduces novel evidence or a novel scenario not in the original argument
- At least one position update or concession is documented — not zero changes from a genuine adversarial debate
Common mistakes
- Choosing a reviewer who confirms the argument without introducing a challenge — the debate must include genuine pushback, not validation
- Not making any updates after the Q&A — in a genuinely contested economic policy debate, a good-faith adversarial challenge almost always requires some response
- Not being able to engage with novel evidence in real time — this is the AI-fakeability countermeasure
Resources
What a verifier looks for
- Confirm the reviewer is an economist or economics academic with familiarity with the policy area
- Review Q&A notes — confirm at least one challenge introduces novel evidence or a scenario not in the original argument
- Check that at least one position update or concession is documented
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